New energy development has broad space for government subsidies or New Deal
On January 18th, 2011, UBS Securities and the First Financial Daily jointly organized the "New Energy Symposium for the UBS Greater China Annual Conference" held at Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai. The theme of the seminar was "Twelve The prospects and challenges faced by new energy in China under the V plan".
UBS Securities analyst Ms. Qi Qichen who spoke first said that China’s energy structure is extremely uneven, with coal accounting for the majority. In order to compensate for this imbalance, the government has invested heavily in the “10th Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†projects. Large power stations, large hydropower plants and nuclear power equipment. Especially for nuclear power, this is the most alternative form of energy for traditional energy, so it will definitely be supported in the future.
At the same time, she also pointed out that China has made great strides in the technical aspects of hydropower, thermal power and nuclear power, and has the world's leading technology in smart power transmission and transformation. If the intelligent power transmission is realized in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†or even “Three Five-Year Planâ€, it will greatly benefit energy conservation.
Next, Mr. Ou Liwen of UBS Asia expressed a very positive view of the electricity market in China and even in the world. However, he admitted that although there are many developments and developments concerning nuclear power, hydropower, and wind power, thermal power generation will still be China's main power source for a long time to come. It is expected that 3/4 of the electricity generation in 2022 will come from coal. Therefore, the development of new energy sources does not mean that it will replace coal to generate electricity.
However, Ou Liwen also has doubts about the connection of new energy and power grids and the carbon trading system. He also believes that China will pay more attention to the end-user end, and develop smart grid technology according to the management of pricing and demand side, let China’s Energy is more efficient.
Regarding new energy vehicles, analyst Chen Guoxi, who is in charge of research in the automotive industry at UBS Securities, said that he is very optimistic. He pointed out that from 2000 to 2010, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles increased by 8.6 times, with an annual increase of 24%. In terms of inventory, it is now estimated at 60 million vehicles. If we look at the current annual sales, it is conservatively estimated that it will reach 150 million by 2015. This will generate huge air pollution, and the development of new energy vehicles is an inevitable requirement for the automotive industry to develop in the future.
He said that the country has provided many support for new energy vehicles, including subsidies from the Ministry of Finance for new energy buses. In the future, it may continue to introduce some new policies, including the long-awaited energy-saving and new energy vehicle planning. From 2011 to 2020, we should set a new goal for hybrid power and pure electric power.
He also stated that there are still some problems in the technology of new energy vehicles, such as the relatively long charging time of electric vehicles, and the need for breakthroughs in technological inventions in the future.
Afterwards, Mr. Algebra who spoke briefly introduced the development of China's photovoltaic industry in 2010. According to him, China's PV companies account for 50% of the world's total output of silicon wafers and battery modules. In 10 years, shipments of PV modules have increased significantly, and wafer production continues to grow. The domestic price ratios are Wuxi's Jingao Solar and Yingli Solar, all of which have more than 10 million kilowatts of solar energy.
But he cautioned that it is worth noting that local governments are impulsively setting up a large number of photovoltaic power plants, but they do not have solar panels because domestic prices are low, so manufacturers lack the power to provide them.
Regarding the issue of whether polysilicon has excess capacity, algebra believes that there is a certain misunderstanding. The demand for polysilicon caused by the economic crisis has declined and is in an abnormal state, and the production capacity and output are not the same. There is an error in statistical caliber.
Finally, Mr. Li Baijun introduced the situation in China's wind power sector. He said that by the end of last year, China had become the world's largest consumer and producer of wind power equipment. The new installed capacity reached 16 million kilowatts and the cumulative installed capacity was 4,200 kilowatts, which has already ranked first in the world.
However, he also pointed out that China still has a gap with the foreign countries in the quality of grid-connected and wind power equipment. For example, one third of us do not have a grid connection, and no more than 10% abroad.
According to the energy development plan formulated by the National Energy Administration, from 2011 to 2020, the country’s cumulative direct investment in new energy industries will reach 5 trillion yuan, and the annual output value will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan – this means the development of China's new energy industry. Coming soon into the new decade. In general, the guests are still optimistic about the future of China's new energy. Although this optimism also contains some concerns, we have reason to believe that capital investment and technological innovation will give us a clearer outlook. . There is ample space for new energy development. Government subsidies or new policies.
UBS Securities analyst Ms. Qi Qichen who spoke first said that China’s energy structure is extremely uneven, with coal accounting for the majority. In order to compensate for this imbalance, the government has invested heavily in the “10th Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†projects. Large power stations, large hydropower plants and nuclear power equipment. Especially for nuclear power, this is the most alternative form of energy for traditional energy, so it will definitely be supported in the future.
At the same time, she also pointed out that China has made great strides in the technical aspects of hydropower, thermal power and nuclear power, and has the world's leading technology in smart power transmission and transformation. If the intelligent power transmission is realized in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†or even “Three Five-Year Planâ€, it will greatly benefit energy conservation.
Next, Mr. Ou Liwen of UBS Asia expressed a very positive view of the electricity market in China and even in the world. However, he admitted that although there are many developments and developments concerning nuclear power, hydropower, and wind power, thermal power generation will still be China's main power source for a long time to come. It is expected that 3/4 of the electricity generation in 2022 will come from coal. Therefore, the development of new energy sources does not mean that it will replace coal to generate electricity.
However, Ou Liwen also has doubts about the connection of new energy and power grids and the carbon trading system. He also believes that China will pay more attention to the end-user end, and develop smart grid technology according to the management of pricing and demand side, let China’s Energy is more efficient.
Regarding new energy vehicles, analyst Chen Guoxi, who is in charge of research in the automotive industry at UBS Securities, said that he is very optimistic. He pointed out that from 2000 to 2010, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles increased by 8.6 times, with an annual increase of 24%. In terms of inventory, it is now estimated at 60 million vehicles. If we look at the current annual sales, it is conservatively estimated that it will reach 150 million by 2015. This will generate huge air pollution, and the development of new energy vehicles is an inevitable requirement for the automotive industry to develop in the future.
He said that the country has provided many support for new energy vehicles, including subsidies from the Ministry of Finance for new energy buses. In the future, it may continue to introduce some new policies, including the long-awaited energy-saving and new energy vehicle planning. From 2011 to 2020, we should set a new goal for hybrid power and pure electric power.
He also stated that there are still some problems in the technology of new energy vehicles, such as the relatively long charging time of electric vehicles, and the need for breakthroughs in technological inventions in the future.
Afterwards, Mr. Algebra who spoke briefly introduced the development of China's photovoltaic industry in 2010. According to him, China's PV companies account for 50% of the world's total output of silicon wafers and battery modules. In 10 years, shipments of PV modules have increased significantly, and wafer production continues to grow. The domestic price ratios are Wuxi's Jingao Solar and Yingli Solar, all of which have more than 10 million kilowatts of solar energy.
But he cautioned that it is worth noting that local governments are impulsively setting up a large number of photovoltaic power plants, but they do not have solar panels because domestic prices are low, so manufacturers lack the power to provide them.
Regarding the issue of whether polysilicon has excess capacity, algebra believes that there is a certain misunderstanding. The demand for polysilicon caused by the economic crisis has declined and is in an abnormal state, and the production capacity and output are not the same. There is an error in statistical caliber.
Finally, Mr. Li Baijun introduced the situation in China's wind power sector. He said that by the end of last year, China had become the world's largest consumer and producer of wind power equipment. The new installed capacity reached 16 million kilowatts and the cumulative installed capacity was 4,200 kilowatts, which has already ranked first in the world.
However, he also pointed out that China still has a gap with the foreign countries in the quality of grid-connected and wind power equipment. For example, one third of us do not have a grid connection, and no more than 10% abroad.
According to the energy development plan formulated by the National Energy Administration, from 2011 to 2020, the country’s cumulative direct investment in new energy industries will reach 5 trillion yuan, and the annual output value will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan – this means the development of China's new energy industry. Coming soon into the new decade. In general, the guests are still optimistic about the future of China's new energy. Although this optimism also contains some concerns, we have reason to believe that capital investment and technological innovation will give us a clearer outlook. . There is ample space for new energy development. Government subsidies or new policies.
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